The Great AI Absorption: An Investor Thesis on AI Cloud (2025–2035)

Prepared for: Institutional Investors, Asset Managers, Sovereign Funds Prepared by: Anicca Market Insights (AMI)

Executive Summary

The AI Cloud sector is transitioning from an infrastructure-led expansion (2023–2025) to a prolonged phase of economic and organizational absorption (2026–2030). While capital markets remain focused on GPU shipments, data-center announcements, and headline investment commitments, the true determinant of long-term value creation will be the global economy’s ability to structurally integrate AI into productive workflows.

AI infrastructure investment has already become a macroeconomic bellwether, accounting for a disproportionate share of U.S. GDP growth in 2024–2025. However, a material disconnect is emerging between capacity built and revenue realized. Much of today’s headline demand is circular, long-dated, or non-binding. As a result, the sector faces a near-term revenue recognition gap, even as long-term demand remains structurally intact.

AMI’s core thesis:

> The next cycle of alpha in AI Cloud will shift away from raw infrastructure provision toward companies that enable structural absorption—governance, orchestration, data readiness, and vertically integrated deployment models that convert latent AI demand into sustained, inference-driven revenue.