5. The Adoption Curve: From Productivity Tools to Autonomous Systems

AI adoption unfolds in multi-year waves:

1. Wave 1 – Individual Productivity (Current)

Copilots, chat interfaces, and task augmentation.

2. Wave 2 – Agentic Workflows (2026–2028)

AI systems that orchestrate tools and processes end-to-end. Requires governance platforms and AI-ready data.

3. Wave 3 – Autonomous Industrial Systems (2030+)

AI embedded directly into production, logistics, healthcare, and scientific workflows.

4. Wave 4 – AGI (Beyond Planning Horizon)

A long-term scenario, not an investment thesis for the current decade.

Near-term impact may disappoint expectations; long-term impact is likely to exceed them once structural prerequisites are met.